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Bitcoin spent Wednesday climbing on relief that the Federal Reserve had done exactly what markets expected. By Thursday morning, it had given the whole move back — and then some. The world's largest cryptocurrency slipped below $80,000, briefly touching about $79,750, before steadying near $80,150, down roughly 1.5% on the day. Ethereum fell further, to around $2,304, and the total crypto market shed 1.3% to about $2.77 trillion.
Nothing about the Fed's decision itself should have shocked anyone. Rates were held at 3.75% to 4.00%, as almost everyone had forecast. What moved the market was everything around that decision: two policymakers voted for an immediate rate hike, the statement kept its warning that inflation "remains elevated," and traders raised the odds of a December hike to somewhere between 80% and 90%. A hold that was supposed to be neutral arrived sounding hawkish — and Bitcoin, which had rallied into the announcement, faded on the details.
This article explains what the Fed actually decided, why a widely expected hold still knocked Bitcoin below $80,000, what the ETF flows and on-chain data really say about who is selling, and what the next three dates on the calendar could do to the price.
What the Fed decided on October 28
The Federal Open Market Committee voted 10-2 to leave the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.75% to 4.00%. The two dissenters were Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, both of whom wanted a quarter-point increase immediately. That matters because dissents in favour of tightening are rarer than dissents in favour of easing, and two of them at once is a clear signal that the committee's centre of gravity has shifted.
The statement itself was a study in two directions at once. It upgraded the description of economic activity from "solid" to "strong," pointing to resilient spending, strong productivity growth and continued investment. At the same time, it repeated that inflation "remains elevated" and said further information would help determine the right stance to return inflation to the Fed's 2% objective. Chair Kevin Warsh, at his press conference, highlighted nearly six years of above-target inflation as the reason for prioritising price stability.
Markets heard the hawkish half louder. Bond traders priced roughly a 90% chance of a December hike, according to Bloomberg, while CME FedWatch put it above 80%. The 10-year Treasury yield closed near 5.04%. And in a detail that got less attention, Warsh said the Fed will turn one of its eight 2027 meetings into a strategy session with no rate vote, cutting rate decisions to six in 2028 — a small structural change that underlines how the committee wants more time to think and fewer set-piece decisions to react to.
Why the post-Fed rally faded so fast
Bitcoin's first reaction to the hold was positive. It climbed above $81,000, with some desks putting the intraday peak near $81,340. Then it hit a wall. Analysts at Delta Exchange put the resistance zone at $81,500 to $82,000, and Mudrex's Prateek Gupta flagged $81,800 as the level to clear. Bitcoin never got there. Once it failed, leveraged long positions unwound, and the decline fed on itself.
CoinGlass data showed about $172 million in liquidations over 24 hours, with shorts accounting for $116 million of that total and longs about $56 million — a mix that suggests the damage was spread across both sides of a choppy market rather than a one-way squeeze. The largest single liquidation, worth $6.35 million, hit a BTC-USD position on Hyperliquid.
The rest of the market fell in step. Ethereum dropped 1.8% to about $2,304, XRP fell 3.2% to $1.29, and Solana slipped 1.6% to just under $100. BNB was the exception among the majors, edging 0.6% higher to about $745. Over seven days, Bitcoin was down about 4.2% and Ethereum about 5.8% — a reminder that Thursday's drop was the latest leg of a slide, not a single-day event.
It also did not happen in a vacuum. The same morning, Nasdaq futures slid as Alphabet fell more than 10% in premarket trading after disappointing search-advertising results and a sharp acceleration in AI cash burn, while Microsoft rose about 3.5% on a cash-flow beat. Software names including ServiceNow and Fortinet fell sharply too. When equity investors start scrutinising how quickly AI spending turns into revenue, risk appetite shrinks everywhere — and Bitcoin, for all its "digital gold" branding, still trades like a risk asset on days like this.
The ETF paradox: money came in, price still fell
Here is the part of the story that confuses people, because the flows and the price seem to point in opposite directions. US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted roughly $286 million on Monday and Tuesday, according to Mudrex's daily market note, nearly offsetting October's net outflows to that point. CoinSwitch's desk put three consecutive days of inflows at approximately $287 million and described institutional demand as showing signs of recovery.
Then, on the Fed day itself, the flow slowed to a trickle: Moneycontrol reported just $1.3 million of net Bitcoin ETF inflow for the session, while Ethereum ETFs added $23.4 million, led by Fidelity's FETH. That sequencing is the whole story in miniature. Institutional buyers were willing to buy the dip early in the week, but they did not chase the post-Fed rally, and they did not defend $80,000 once it broke.
The longer view makes the point even clearer. KuCoin's daily report noted that net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have been close to zero year to date — yet Bitcoin's decline has stayed relatively contained. That combination points to a market that is not being carried by fresh ETF money right now, but is not collapsing for lack of it either. Somebody is still buying. The question is who, and at what price they stop.
The underwater holders: 4 million Bitcoin bought too high
The most sobering number in this week's data comes from Glassnode, via Dow Jones and Morningstar: long-term holders own about 4 million Bitcoin bought between $85,000 and $118,000. At a price near $80,000, most of those coins are underwater. More than half of all long-term holders' coins were bought above the current price level.
That matters for a reason that has nothing to do with charts. Underwater holders do not all sell — long-term holders, by definition, tend to sit tight — but they stop being a source of new demand, and they become a ceiling. Every rally back toward $85,000 meets a wave of owners who finally have a chance to get out whole. That is why $81,500 to $82,000 has acted as such a stubborn resistance zone this week: it is not just a line on a chart, it is the lower edge of a very crowded neighbourhood.
Short-term holders tell a similar story from the other side. KuCoin's report noted that their average profit margin has narrowed from about 20% to roughly 5.5%, while their average cost basis sits near $76,500. As long as Bitcoin holds above that level, short-term holders remain in profit on average, and the market can consolidate and rebuild. Below it, the same group flips to losses, and selling pressure tends to accelerate. That makes $76,500 the level that matters most after $78,000 — the support flagged by both Mudrex ($78,000) and WazirX founder Nishchal Shetty, who put immediate support at $79,500 to $79,800, followed by $77,700 to $78,000.
There is a counterweight, and it is substantial. Publicly listed companies now hold approximately 1.3 million Bitcoin, up 31% over the past 14 months, according to KuCoin's report — and Strategy alone accounts for 71% of that increase. Corporate treasury buying is slow, lumpy and largely price-insensitive compared with ETF flows, which is exactly why it acts as a floor rather than a fuel. It will not push Bitcoin to new highs on its own, but it does explain why repeated tests of $78,000 to $80,000 have produced bounces rather than breakdowns.
The bright spot nobody is talking about: Visa's stablecoin surge
While Bitcoin's price dominated headlines, the week's most important crypto story for the long term may have been a payments announcement. Visa said on its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings call on October 27 that its stablecoin settlement volume has passed $25 billion on an annualised basis — ten times the level of a year earlier.
The details are worth spelling out, because the headline number is easy to misread. The $25 billion is an annualised run rate, not a total for the year: it extrapolates the current pace of activity. Visa now supports settlement across 10 blockchains, more than double a year ago, in all five of its regions, and handles five stablecoins: USDC, Global Dollar (USDG), Circle's euro-backed Euro Coin (EURC), PayPal USD (PYUSD) and SBC, a dollar stablecoin issued by Brale. Its stablecoin-linked card programmes have grown more than 70% in a year to over 225, covering about 5 million cards in more than 50 countries, with transaction volume up more than 150%. Its Open USD token, launched on September 30, already had more than $800 million in circulation by October 15, and the company counts more than 300 partners in its pipeline.
None of that moves Bitcoin's price today. It does, however, answer the question that has hung over crypto for years: is any of this actually being used for something other than speculation? Visa's answer — settlement between financial institutions, running on blockchains, at a pace ten times last year's — is the strongest evidence yet that the infrastructure layer is being adopted regardless of what the speculative layer does. The two markets are diverging, and investors who treat them as one trade will keep being surprised by both.
What happens next: three dates that decide it
The first date is today, Thursday, October 29. The US releases third-quarter GDP, forecast at about 3.0%, and September PCE inflation — the Fed's preferred measure — at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. A hot PCE print would pour fuel on the December-hike narrative that already knocked Bitcoin below $80,000; a soft one would give the market room to argue the Fed can afford to wait. The European Central Bank also decides today, with a hold at 2.50% widely expected.
The second date is the December 8–9 FOMC meeting itself. Markets are pricing a hike at 80% to 90%, which means the bar for a surprise is now very high in one direction: a hold in December would be the dovish shock, and it would likely send Bitcoin sharply higher, while a hike is already largely in the price. That asymmetry is worth remembering, because it inverts the usual logic. Right now, Bitcoin's upside may depend less on good news arriving than on bad news failing to arrive.
The third date is less precise but just as important: the point at which the $76,500 short-term-holder cost basis is either defended or lost. If Bitcoin consolidates between $78,000 and $82,000 for the next few weeks, underwater holders gradually stop dominating the story, new buyers establish positions at lower levels, and the market rebuilds a base. If $76,500 breaks, the same on-chain data that now describes a healthy consolidation will start describing capitulation. Watch the level, not the headlines.
Our analysis: Bitcoin is being repriced, not rejected
Step back from the hourly chart, and this week looks less like a crisis and more like a repricing. Bitcoin entered October with a large group of holders who had bought between $85,000 and $118,000, a Federal Reserve that had just raised rates in September for the first time since 2023, and a stock market that was starting to ask hard questions about AI spending. A 4% weekly decline under those conditions is not a verdict on Bitcoin. It is what a high-beta asset does when the cost of money rises and risk appetite falls at the same time.
The more interesting question is what has not happened. ETF flows did not turn into a rout — they slowed, but Monday and Tuesday's $286 million of inflows show institutional buyers still stepping in on weakness. Corporate treasuries did not blink. And the stablecoin plumbing underneath the market quietly had its best week ever, with Visa's tenfold growth to a $25 billion annualised run rate. A market that was truly being rejected would not show all three of those things at once.
None of this makes Bitcoin a safe trade at $80,000. The December hike is more likely than not, the PCE data today could easily reinforce it, and the $76,500 level is close enough that one bad session could test it. But the difference between a market that is being repriced and a market that is being rejected is what happens after the bad news is fully priced in. The first kind finds buyers. The second kind does not. This week's evidence — ETF inflows on weakness, corporate holdings at record levels, real settlement volume growing tenfold — points, on balance, to the first kind. That is a reason for patience, not for celebration, and certainly not for leverage.
Frequently asked questions
Why did Bitcoin fall below $80,000 if the Fed did not raise rates?
Because the hold came with two dissents in favour of a hike, a statement warning that inflation "remains elevated," and a jump in December hike odds to 80–90%. Traders had hoped for a softer signal; they got a hawkish one, and Bitcoin's rally into the announcement reversed when it failed to clear $81,500–$82,000 resistance.
What is the next support level for Bitcoin?
Analysts cited this week put immediate support at $79,500–$79,800, followed by $77,700–$78,000. Below that, the key on-chain level is the short-term holder cost basis near $76,500 — if that breaks, selling pressure could accelerate as short-term holders flip from profit to loss on average.
Are Bitcoin ETFs still seeing inflows?
Yes, but the pace has slowed sharply. US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in roughly $286–287 million over Monday to Wednesday's sessions, nearly offsetting October's net outflows, but only about $1.3 million on the Fed day itself. Year to date, net ETF inflows are close to zero, according to KuCoin's daily report.
What does the December Fed meeting mean for crypto?
Markets price an 80–90% chance of a December hike, so a hike is largely expected and a hold would be the bigger surprise. Thursday's PCE inflation data and the December 8–9 meeting are the two events most likely to reset those odds — and with them, Bitcoin's direction.
What is Visa's $25 billion stablecoin figure, and why does it matter?
It is Visa's annualised stablecoin settlement run rate — the current pace of settlement between financial institutions on blockchains, up tenfold in a year — not a yearly total or revenue figure. It matters because it shows blockchain rails being used for real payments infrastructure even while speculative crypto prices fall.
Is Bitcoin still a safe haven?
On days like October 29, no — Bitcoin fell alongside stocks as AI earnings disappointed and rate-hike odds rose, behaving like a risk asset. Its "digital gold" case rests on longer horizons: fixed supply and growing institutional and corporate holdings. Short-term traders should treat it as a volatile risk asset, not a shelter.
Sources
Morningstar / Dow Jones Newswires — "Bitcoin Reverses Gains as Fed Optimism Proves Short-Lived," October 29, 2026: morningstar.com
CoinEdition — "24 Hour Crypto Recap: Here's What Happened in the Market," October 29, 2026: coinedition.com
NDTV Profit — Sensex / stock market live updates, October 29, 2026 (Mudrex and CoinSwitch market quotes): ndtv.com
Moneycontrol — "Bitcoin falls below $80,000 despite ETF inflows as Fed's hawkish stance fuels caution," October 29, 2026: moneycontrol.com
KuCoin — "Crypto Daily Market Report," October 29, 2026: kucoin.com
NordFX — "Market Pulse – October 29, 2026: Fed Hold, ECB, US GDP and PCE": nordfx.com
Reuters — "Nasdaq futures slide as mixed Big Tech results test AI trade," October 29, 2026: reuters.com
CryptoRank / BeInCrypto coverage of Visa's fiscal Q4 2026 earnings call, October 29, 2026: cryptorank.io
Instagram trader update on the October 29 crypto sell-off, @crypto_shubhrant, October 29, 2026: instagram.com/reel/DfEaqtppVS4
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