
On Friday evening, Donald Trump signed an executive order that effectively shelved the toughest sanctions law of his second presidency — one he had personally signed into law just weeks earlier.
The Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 was supposed to start biting on October 18. It didn't. With a single pen stroke, Trump invoked a national-interest waiver built into the legislation and put the entire package on ice, telling Congress the pause was necessary to protect America's economic interests.
What the Law Was Supposed to Do
The law was a sledgehammer. Passed with large bipartisan majorities in both the House and the Senate, it was designed to choke off the money Moscow uses to fund its war in Ukraine — now grinding through its fifth year. Under its terms, the United States would have imposed tariffs of up to 100% on all goods imported from the five largest buyers of Russian crude oil and natural gas, penalized any country that knowingly bought Russian energy after the law's enactment, and gone after the so-called shadow fleet of tankers that keeps Russian oil moving through back channels. It would also have slapped 500% tariffs on American imports of Russian energy products.
The bill was named for Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, who died in July. Graham had spent years arguing that only crushing economic pressure could force Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table, and the law's passage was widely seen in Washington as a tribute to him.
The Diesel Deal That Changed Everything
What changed Trump's mind wasn't hard to spot: diesel.
Last week, Trump announced on social media that he had spoken with Putin and struck an agreement for Russia to release large volumes of diesel onto global markets. The numbers he quoted were striking — more than 300,000 tonnes immediately, another 500,000 tonnes in November, a million tonnes after that, and three million more "within a short period of time."
American diesel prices have been hovering near record highs, and with the November 3 midterm elections approaching, the White House has been desperate for relief at the pump. Analysts noted the administration is clearly trying to ease pressure on energy markets before voters head to the polls.
The collision was obvious. The Graham Act's tariff provisions would have punished the very countries Trump now needs cooperating on energy — and would have complicated the logistics of Russian fuel reaching world markets. Waiving the sanctions solves that problem in a single move.
There is a catch, though. The executive order doesn't repeal the tariffs. It formally imposes them while suspending their enforcement — which means Trump keeps the weapon on the shelf and can pick it up again whenever he chooses.
India's Narrow Escape
Nobody exhaled louder than New Delhi.
India was squarely in the law's crosshairs. The country imports more than 88% of its crude oil, and Russian barrels made up roughly 45% of those imports in August — about 2.08 million barrels a day. A 100% tariff on Indian goods entering the United States would have been an economic earthquake.
Foreign ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said on Friday that India's energy policy is guided by market availability and prevailing global circumstances — diplomatic language for "we buy what's cheapest."
China and Turkey, the other top buyers of Russian energy, got the same reprieve. It also spared Washington a direct trade clash with two of its most important economic relationships, just as Secretary of State Marco Rubio was landing in India for talks on energy and trade.
The Backlash
Not everyone is applauding. A bipartisan group of senators wrote to Trump this week demanding that he rescind the diesel deal and enforce the Graham law the way Congress intended.
Democrats went further. California Governor Gavin Newsom's office posted online that someone "has to be getting paid by Putin," while Representative Don Beyer called the waiver a surrender that "betrays our Ukrainian partners," accusing Trump of twisting a law he signed into something unrecognizable. Beyer wants Congress to rewrite the waiver provision so it can't be used this way again.
The criticism cuts deeper because of Trump's broader posture on the war. He has been warming to Moscow in public while sharpening his attacks on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy — even suggesting recently that Ukraine needs new leadership.
What Happens Next
The October 18 deadline has come and gone without a single tariff being collected. For now, the sanctions exist only on paper.
Markets will be watching whether the promised Russian diesel actually shows up — and in what quantities. Ukraine's government has not formally responded to the waiver, but the message it sends about American resolve is hard to miss.
And in New Delhi, Beijing, and Ankara, energy ministers are recalculating — grateful for the reprieve, but aware that the tariffs Trump just suspended can be switched back on with another executive order. In Washington, that may be the entire point.
For more on how global power moves reach your wallet, follow the analysis at abdulrahimmughal.com.